Based on coverage from Global News, CKOM, and National Observer.
Three federal byelections on April 13 are shaping up as more than just local contests. Depending on how they break, they could change the Liberals’ grip on the House of Commons and even influence how long Parliament lasts.
The upcoming byelections come at a time of heightened political tension in Quebec, as recent discussions surrounding immigration and language have been brought to the forefront, as noted in the recent leadership debate coverage. This backdrop could further influence voter sentiment in the Terrebonne contest.
Two votes are in Toronto-area Liberal strongholds, and one is in Quebec’s Terrebonne, north of Montreal, where the math gets tricky fast.
April 13 byelections in Toronto and Quebec
Voters in Scarborough Southwest and University, Rosedale are choosing new MPs after two former Liberal cabinet ministers stepped down.
Bill Blair left Parliament to become Canada’s high commissioner to the U.K. Chrystia Freeland also vacated her seat and has taken on new roles, including economic adviser to the Ukrainian president and CEO of the Rhodes Trust.
Most observers expect the Liberals to hold both Toronto ridings. Terrebonne is the one drawing the national spotlight.
Terrebonne rematch after Supreme Court ruling
Terrebonne produced the closest result in the country last April: the Liberals won by a single vote on election night.
That razor-thin win didn’t stick. A court challenge followed after Elections Canada was found to have put an incorrect return address on some mail-in ballots, meaning those ballots were never counted. The Supreme Court of Canada invalidated the result in February, and the riding is voting again.
Polling aggregator 338 Canada calls Terrebonne a toss-up between the Liberals and the Bloc Québécois. The riding has voted Bloc in recent elections, which helps explain why this redo is being treated like a real coin flip.
House of Commons seat count and Speaker factor
If the Liberals win the two Toronto byelections, they would reach 172 MPs, which on paper is a majority in the House of Commons.
But there’s a catch: the Speaker is Liberal MP Francis Scarpaleggia. Speakers generally don’t vote except to break a tie. So a 172-seat “majority” can still be fragile day-to-day, because the government may need at least one opposition MP to vote with them or abstain to get legislation through.
That’s why Terrebonne matters so much to the Liberals. A win there would give them an extra cushion, and potentially that “critical extra vote” when the Speaker is out of the count.
Mark Carney’s floor-crossing strategy draws fire
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s team has been pursuing something rarely seen in modern Canadian politics: turning a minority into a majority by recruiting MPs from other parties.
The floor-crossers named in the reporting are: - Nova Scotia MP Chris d’Entremont, who crossed in November after the budget - Ontario MP Michael Ma, who crossed just before Christmas - Alberta Conservative Matt Jeneroux, who joined in February - Nunavut MP Lori Idlout, who left the NDP bench earlier this month
Conservatives have attacked the moves as “shady backroom deals” and “undemocratic,” though they have not gone as far as calling for rule changes to stop floor-crossing in the future.
Why a “majority” may still feel like a minority
Even if the Liberals land at 172 or more seats, Éric-Antoine Menard of North Star Public Affairs argues that 172 is “not a magical number.”
One big reason is committees, where opposition MPs can slow or reshape legislation. MPs unanimously agreed in June to a committee structure for the rest of this Parliament: five Liberals, four Conservatives, and one Bloc member. The reporting says a Liberal majority in the House would not automatically change that committee math, and committees can’t be reset just by proroguing and launching a new session with a throne speech.
To gain more committee control, the government would need opposition agreement or to amend the Standing Orders. Menard suggests the Liberals may not want that fight, saying the mood in the House is “generally positive” and the government has been moving its agenda by working with other parties.
Susan Smith of BlueSky Strategy Group takes the opposite view, arguing smoother House function and less committee “shenanigans” from the opposition could become a priority.
More byelections could also be coming, which could quickly shake the numbers again. The reporting cites Liberal MP Nate Erskine-Smith exploring a run for the Ontario Liberal leadership and planning to vacate Beaches, East York, and rumours that North Vancouver, Capilano MP Jonathan Wilkinson may be seeking a diplomatic posting. Media reports also say NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice is considering Quebec provincial politics.
Add ongoing floor-crossing chatter on Parliament Hill, and even a narrow Liberal majority could be hard to keep unified, especially with a caucus that now includes former New Democrats and several former Conservatives.
On election timing, the stakes are obvious: a majority could last three years, or Carney could choose to go early. Polls in the reporting suggest the Liberals have a wide lead and Carney is more popular than Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, but Smith argues Canadians aren’t demanding an election right now, even if the option stays on the government’s radar.
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