Based on coverage from CBC, CTV, and the Financial Post.
Canada's labour market delivered a pleasant surprise in October, adding 67,000 jobs and nudging the unemployment rate down to 6.9 per cent from 7.1 per cent in September. This unexpected boost defied economists' predictions, who had anticipated a loss of 20,000 jobs and a rise in the unemployment rate to 7.2 per cent. The job gains were primarily in part-time positions, with significant contributions from the wholesale and retail trade, transportation and warehousing, and information, culture, and recreation sectors.
Ontario Leads Job Growth Amid Trade Tensions
Ontario emerged as a standout in October's job market, contributing 55,000 positions to the national tally. This is noteworthy given the province's struggles with the ongoing trade tensions with the United States, which have particularly impacted manufacturing-heavy regions like Windsor. Despite these challenges, Ontario's job market showed resilience, with Windsor's unemployment rate decreasing from a peak of 11.2 per cent in June to 9.6 per cent.
The private sector was a significant driver of job growth, adding 73,000 positions, marking its first gain since June. However, the construction sector faced setbacks, losing 15,000 jobs, while the manufacturing sector saw a modest increase of 8,700 positions. Overall, goods-producing industries have shed 54,000 jobs since January, largely due to trade uncertainties, while services-producing sectors have added 142,000 positions.
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Youth Employment Sees Positive Shift
October also brought some relief to young workers, with the youth unemployment rate dropping for the first time since February. The addition of 21,000 jobs for those aged 15 to 24 helped reduce the youth jobless rate by 0.6 percentage points to 14.1 per cent. This marks a positive shift after months of challenges in the youth labour market.
Average hourly wages increased by 3.5 per cent year-over-year, reaching $37.06 per hour in October. This wage growth, coupled with the job gains, suggests a level of resilience in Canada's labour market despite broader economic uncertainties.
Bank of Canada Holds Steady on Interest Rates
The Bank of Canada is closely monitoring these labour market developments as it prepares for its final interest rate decision of the year in December. The central bank recently cut its policy rate to 2.25 per cent, and Governor Tiff Macklem has indicated that further cuts are unlikely unless economic data deviates significantly from forecasts. The recent job figures align with the Bank's view that current interest rates are sufficient to stimulate the economy.
While October's job numbers provide some optimism, economists caution that the labour market's overall strength remains modest. The ongoing trade tensions and a still-elevated unemployment rate suggest that challenges persist. However, the recent data offers a glimmer of hope that Canada's economy might be more resilient than previously thought.
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