Based on coverage from CBC and CTV.
Feeling a little squeezed in the orange juice aisle? You're not alone. The cost of a carton of fresh-squeezed juice has been climbing, and U.S. shipments to Canada have plummeted to their lowest in over two decades. But before you start rationing your breakfast staple, let's unpack what's really going on.
The decline in U.S. orange juice imports to Canada is no accident. It's a cocktail of supply issues, tariffs, and changing consumer habits. Michael von Massow, a professor at the University of Guelph, points out that the drop in imports is partly due to Canada's 25% counter-tariffs on U.S. goods, including Florida orange juice. These tariffs were Canada's response to U.S. President Donald Trump's trade policies, and they’ve made Florida OJ a pricier option on Canadian shelves.
But tariffs are just one slice of the citrus pie. Florida's orange production has been battered by hurricanes, disease, and drought, leading to a 62% drop in output for the 2022-23 season. Brazil, the world's largest orange juice exporter, isn't faring much better, facing its worst harvest in 36 years due to extreme weather. With supply squeezed from both ends, prices are naturally on the rise.
William Huggins, an assistant professor at McMaster University, notes that orange juice has become a symbol of the broader trade tensions between Canada and the U.S. "The most basic thing you can do to give your finger to the most powerful man in the world is to hurt his home state's economy," Huggins quipped, referring to Florida's ties to Trump.
The price hikes are indeed hard to swallow. Statistics Canada reports that the average price for a two-litre carton of orange juice jumped to $5.95 in June, up from $5.62 in January. That's a 54% increase compared to June 2020. And while some might argue that the price hasn't skyrocketed, the pinch is real for consumers already grappling with rising grocery bills.
Michael Graydon, CEO of Food, Health and Consumer Products of Canada, highlights that the tariffs are hitting Canadian consumers harder than their U.S. counterparts. The tariffs have contributed to food inflation, with fewer promotions and higher prices on store shelves. Graydon warns that unless the trade environment stabilizes, prices will continue to climb.
So, what's a juice-loving Canadian to do? Fortunately, there are alternatives. Canadian brands like Oasis, which sources oranges from Brazil and bottles the juice in Quebec, offer a more affordable option. And if you're not married to the idea of orange juice, apple juice and other blends are waiting in the wings.
Eric Wickham, who worked on the Hoser Grocery Tracker project, suggests that Canadians are increasingly "voting with their wallets," opting for Canadian products amid geopolitical tensions. The sentiment echoes the broader "Buy Canadian" movement, which has gained traction since the Trump era.
In the end, while the once-ubiquitous glass of Florida orange juice might be a rarer sight at the Canadian breakfast table, it's not the end of the world. As von Massow puts it, "Unless you're tied specifically to fresh-pressed orange juice from Florida," there are plenty of options to keep your breakfast routine intact. So, whether you're switching brands or exploring new juice horizons, there's no need to panic—just yet.
